Nitrogen / Urea Demand Regression Modelling

Client Request

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Objective : To develop a robust and comprehensive model for projecting long-term urea demand in Pakistan, supporting policy and industry decisions with a horizon of 10-15 years. Key Deliverables were as follows

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1. Variable Identification for Demand Forecasting Model
2. Examine the patterns and relationships among the identified variables, specifically focusing on their impact on urea consumption and demand trends over time.
3. Conduct an analysis to estimate the price elasticity of urea demand in relation to factors such as Urea Consumption and Agriculture GDP, Water Availability providing insights into how industrial and economic changes influence demand.
4. Develop projections using multiple Scenarios which will assist the stakeholders to anticipate and prepare for varying conditions

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Our Solution

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1. We developed a Multiple Regression Model using key demand drivers to forecast long-term urea consumption, incorporating economic, and policy variables. Robust econometric techniques ensured accuracy and reliability of the model, allowing for scenario-based projections to aid decision-making.
2. Created a Excel Workbook based template for FFC Marketing team to input the future data of the independent variables and compare the projections with actual data

Skills

• Research
• Literature Review
• Projection Modelling
• Econometrics
• Time Series Analysis
• Technical Consulting

Tools

• R Programming
• Excel
• Power Point